Course Outline:

Module 1: Overview of Trade Policy Analysis

• Concepts and tools in trade analysis
• Role of statistics and modeling
• Case Study: Analyzing tariff structures

Module 2: Data Sources and Harmonization

• UNCTADstat, Comtrade, WITS, WTO
• Data consistency and harmonization
• Real-Life Project: Harmonizing trade data for analysis

Module 3: Econometric Techniques in Trade

• Regression analysis and indicators
• Statistical inference in trade studies
• Case Study: Impact of NTBs on trade

Module 4: Gravity Models and Estimation

• Gravity model theory and assumptions
• Trade elasticity measurement
• Real-Life Project: Bilateral trade estimation using Stata

Module 5: SMART Partial Equilibrium Analysis

• Structure and functionality of SMART in WITS
• Tariff liberalization simulations
• Case Study: Impact analysis of AfCFTA

Module 6: GTAP and General Equilibrium Modeling

•  Introduction to CGE and GTAP model
• Input-output modeling in trade
• Real-Life Project: Simulating regional integration effects

Module 7: Trade Forecasting Techniques

• Time series forecasting
• Predictive analytics for trade flows
• Case Study: Forecasting EAC exports to China

Module 8: Visualization and Interpretation

• Graphical interpretation of results
• Using dashboards to report trade findings
• Real-Life Project: Creating a trade analysis dashboard

Module 9: Writing Trade Policy Briefs

• Structure and tone of a policy memo
• Visual summaries and executive dashboards
• Case Study: Policy recommendation to support a key sector

Module 10: Capstone Project

• Full modeling and reporting exercise
• Peer presentations and critique
• Action planning and follow-up